By Friedrich A. Hayek

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M. Bunge (New York, 1964). Reprinted (with additions) in my Studies in Philosophy, Politics and Economics (Chicago: University of Chicago Press; London: Routledge & Kegan Paul,I%7). ~, Unemployment and Monetary Policy mination of these prices and wages will enter the effects of particular information possessed by everyone of the participants in the market process, a sum of facts that in their totality cannot be known to the scientific observer or to any other single brain. It is indeed the source of the superiority of the market order (and the reason why, so long as it is not suppressed by the powers of government, it regularly displaces other types of order) that in the resulting allocation of resources, it uses more of the knowledge of particular facts-knowledge tffiil is disperS~tl among uncountetrP"ersons-than anyone person can possess.

This explanation corresponds to what I have called earlier the mere pattern predictions to which we are increasingly confined as we move from the realm where relatively simple laws prevail into the range of phenomena where organized complexity rules. As we advance, we find more and more frequently that we can in practice ascertain some, but not all, of the particular circumstances that determine the outcome of a given process. In consequence, we are able to predict some, but not all, of the properties of the result we have to expect.

The difficulties we encounter with essentially complex phenomena do not, as one might at first suspect, concern the formulation of theories to explain the observed events-although essentially complex phenomena do entail special difficulties in testing proposed explanations and therefore in eliminating bad theories. l ' Once we succeed in this task, there should be no particular difficulty about deriving testable predictions. With the help of modern computers, it should be easy enough to insert these data 33 Unemployment and Monetary Policy :1( into the appropriate blanks of the theoretical formulae and to derive a prediction.

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