By Michael J. Mazarr

This e-book tested the way forward for nuclear deterrences within the Nineteen Nineties and past. It first outlines possible features of the longer term strategic atmosphere, together with the beginning treaty in addition to such advancements as more and more actual guns and extra energetic public participation in nuclear judgements. Given these advancements and others, the quantity initiatives the most probably way forward for deterrence techniques and strategic strength postures. The book's simple arguments is that begin will advertise a close to ultimate answer of the counterforce/countervalue debate and different facets of what has turn into a stagnant nuclear debate. It discusses such matters as prolonged deterrence, nuclear modernization, Soviet nuclear doctrine, cruise missile courses, strategic defenses, and hands regulate verification inside this common framework. Its purposee is to take the overall strands of consenus and balance on sure concerns and weave them jointly right into a coherent nuclear procedure.

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Under many circumstances large-scale countervalue attacks may not be appropriate - nor will their prospect always be sufficiently credible - to deter war. Problems with existing US nuclear strategy arise when one begins to consider just what sort of attacks one would contemplate to enforce the countervailing strategy. It is possible to interpret its requirements so broadly (and Secretary Brown perhaps opened the door to such interpretations with his injunction to deter Soviet attacks 'over the broadest possible range of scenarios') that one begins to acquire the sorts of war-fighting forces and doctrines dangerous to peace.

A number of corresponding facts and developments, however, will undercut to a degree the implications of these weapons. First and most important would be numerical limits on strategic delivery vehicles - primarily ballistic and cruise missiles and bombers. No matter how discriminating a warhead might be, if it is not attached to a delivery vehicle it holds little significance. Combined with the increasing survivability of strategie forces and the numerous uncertainties attaching to the employment of nuclear weapons at strategic range, limits on delivery vehicles will prevent low-yield nuclear or non-nuclear strategic weapons from threatening either side's secure deterrent.

THE PARADOX OF DETERRENCE Trying to solve both problems - deterring both general and limited wars - has proven difficuh, for it runs afoul of what could accurately be termed the 'paradox of deterrence'. Deterrence contains many dilemmas and paradoxes, of course; but for the purposes of this volume one will be referred to as 'the' paradox, akin to wh at Glenn Snyder calls the 'stability-instability paradox'. 3 It involves the relationship between pre-war deterrence and intrawar deterrence (deterrence within wars, as for example of nuclear first-use during a conventional war).

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