By P. A. Dirmeyer, J. Shukla (auth.), J. Shukla (eds.)

It has been recognized for your time that the habit of the momentary fluctuations of the earth's surroundings resembles that of a chaotic non-linear dynamical process, and that the day by day climate can't be estimated past a number of weeks. although, it has additionally been chanced on that the interactions of the ambience with the underlying oceans and the land surfaces can produce fluctuations whose time scales are for much longer than the bounds of deterministic prediction of climate. it truly is, accordingly, traditional to invite if it is attainable that the seasonal and longer time averages of weather fluctuations will be anticipated with enough ability to be worthwhile for social and fiscal functions, although the main points of the day by day climate can't be expected past a couple of weeks. the most goal of the workshop used to be to deal with this question through assessing the present nation of data on predictability of seasonal and interannual weather variability and to enquire numerous chances for its prediction.

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75° II " UKMO 71 3x2 64 8 2 Xmonth 50 90 40 30 30 Hem. 75° 2+3 4+38 42 24 16 Time NUlllber range of (days) cases L16 60 T63/42/2l L16 30,60 T42/21 TI06 L16/19 30 TI06/63/42/21 L19 " T63 L16/19 II Horizontal/Vertica resolution L5 Lll Molteni et al 1987 Palmer et al. 1990 Tibaldi et al. 1990 Brankovic et al. 1990 cubasch, Wiin-Nielsen 1986 References Synopsis of various DERF experiments published in the Last 5 years Mansfield 1986 Owen, Palmer 1987 Murphy,Dickinson 1989 Murphy 1990 Milton et al 1991 ECMWF Center Table 1 ~ 52 testing of numerical models in extended range prediction experiments with real data.

30~--------------------------------------------~ 25r-----------------------------------------------1 20r-----------------------------------------------1 15 10 5 2 4 5 7 6 9 8 10 11 12 (month( Eurasia snow cover ffi:li o 35 NOAA/NESS E3 GAGO (CY17) ~ GAGO (ECH1) ~ RAND NASA _ GAGO (ECH2) (mill. km') 30 25 20 15 -- .. n. ;t rL 8 9 10 11 12 Imonth) FIGURE Sa: Annual cycle of long-term averages of snow cover (in 106 km~ from observations (NOAA/NESS, NASA, RAND) and GCM simulations (Cycle 17, ECHAMI and ECHAM2 model versions) for Nonh America and Eurasia (from Dehr and Diimenil, 1991).

Thus. it is not soil moisture which directly affects the atmosphere. but latent and sensible heating which is modulated by soil moisture. Soil moisture is difficult to quantify in terms of its affect on the atmosphere. Many other factors. such as vegetation. soil characteristics and ambient conditions alter the transfer of moisture from soil to the air. Also. soil moisture is very difficult to measure directly due to its heterogeneity at small scales. There is observational evidence that soil moisture correlates to future rainfall and temperature in certain instances.

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