By J. W. Minarick, C. A. Kukielka (auth.), Ray A. Waller, Vincent T. Covello (eds.)

In fresh years public awareness has taken with an array of low-probability/high-consequence (LC/HC) occasions that pose a signif­ icant hazard to human wellbeing and fitness, security, and the surroundings. whilst, private and non-private quarter tasks for the evaluate and administration of such occasions have grown due to a perceived have to count on, hinder, or decrease the hazards. In trying to meet those duties, legislative, judicial, regulatory, and personal area associations have needed to care for the terribly complicated challenge of assessing and balancing LP/ HC dangers opposed to the prices and ben if its of chance relief. the necessity to support society focus on LP/HC occasions akin to nuclear energy plant injuries, poisonous spills, chemical plant explosions, and transportation injuries has given upward push to the improvement of a brand new highbrow activity: LP/HC possibility research. The scope and complexity of those analyses require a excessive measure of cooperative attempt at the a part of experts from many f~elds. interpreting technical, social, and price concerns calls for the efforts of physicists, biologists, geneticists, statisticians, chemists, engineers, political scientists, sociologists, choice analysts, administration scientists, economists, psychologists, ethicists, attorneys, and coverage analysts. incorporated during this quantity are papers via authors in each one of those disciplines. The papers proportion in universal a spotlight on a number of of the subsequent questions which are primary to the research of LP/HC risks.

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Additional info for Low-Probability High-Consequence Risk Analysis: Issues, Methods, and Case Studies

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The two distributions of auxiliary building fire frequency of Table 2 are repeated in Table 8 for comparison. The distributions of Fig. 1 are only a first step in a fire risk analysis. fire within a given compartment. This is because the damage caused by, say, an exposure fire depends sensitively on the distance of the components from the fire. The assessment of the fraction of times that a fire will be exactly in a specific location usually involves a lot of judgment based on the geometry of that location [1].

Diesel Generator Fires Date of Occurrence Diesel Generator Failure Remarks D. Arnold 11/76 No Small fire on exhaust header from a fuel line leak. ~waunee 09/77 No Carbon deposits in the exhaust system. Pilgrim 05/80 Yes Electrical fire in exciter cubicle. Zion 2 09/76 Yes Diesel generator overload leads to generator fire. D. Arnold 12/75 No Small fire on exhaust manifold due to oil leakage. Crystal River 3 07/79 Yes Fire inside exhaust manifold due to internal causes. Maine Yankee 10/79 Yes Fire inside and consequently outside exhaust manifold due to internal causes.

Oyster Creek Electric Power Failed Switchgear HPCI Valve Fitzpatrick San Onofre 1 SI Robinson 2 San Onofre 1 Power Cables (several) Millstone 2 Davis Besse 1 May 1977 June 1976 March 1968 July 1978 February 1968 March 1976 May 1978 -- Duane Arnold Electric Power/Breaker Fire Pump Starter (nonsafety) Several (one trai n) Batteries Starter Failed Failed Yes No Failed Failed Failed No May 1977 HPCI Fi tzpatri ck Fai led Fai led April 1977 RHR Pump 1A Component Safety Component Affected Surry 1 Plant Name Shutdown Hot Standby Power Operation 100'1.

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