By Paolo Bisogno, Augusto Forti (auth.), Nigel Hawkes (eds.)

Paolo Bisogno and Augusto Forti Taking an curiosity sooner or later is without doubt one of the such a lot instinctive aware of the lifestyles of time in addition to of human actions. house, guy has continually attempted to bet what the long run holds. until eventually lately students have left the sector of hypothesis to the pseudo­ sciences of astrology and palmistry or to the ambiguities of the oracles. imaginitive writers have made a few wonderful contributions, however the improvement of mathematical modelling and different predictive suggestions are fairly fresh arrivals. the recent ideas have come at simply the precise second. this present day the examine of the longer term has a far sharper relevance than ever earlier than, simply because humans have started to understand that the longer term could be managed - or maybe that it needs to be managed if there's to be a destiny in any respect; guy should still take cost and select his personal destiny from quite a lot of probabilities. until he does so, the pressures of the pre­ despatched will impose their very own common sense and convey a destiny from a fallacious mold - a destiny within which the contradictions of wealth, privilege and tool are monstrously exaggerated through the magnifier of monetary growth.

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Additional resources for International Seminar on Trends in Mathematical Modelling: Venice, 13–18 December 1971

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Thus the formula for measuring the dependance will be the following one: The "dependance" helps us to detect some secondary relations within a society: (a) Who is interested in the elimination of whom? That is, who stands to gain a better situation in the social hierarchy if another person disappears from that hierarchy? (b) Who is interested in defending whom? That is, who is afraid of the degradation of his own situation in the hierarchy if another person disappears from it? Thus, the introduction of the simple parameter of the "social situation" can help us to discover the real hierarchies and the mechanisms of a social organisation.

Conversely, I des- cribe as "non-paternalistic" all methods, models or proposals put ~orward by the persons who have to implement them and thus have to take all the risks The ant. di~~erence o~ miscalculation themselves. seems a narrow one, but I consider it very import- All current mathematical models which involve social events imply some value system. These values might be considered as var- iables (that is, any person implementing the model can invent them according to his own pre~erences) or they might be invariants (that is, they belong to the model itsel~, model and independent pre~erences o~ the being characteristic the o~ the individual implement- o~ ing the model).

A society in which a certain proportion is passed will not function efficiently - 40 - and disintegrates. This threshold is practically a special case of the first one. Other thresholds are more specific, showing the numerical limits characterising egalitarian, stable and symmetric societies. An example of such thresholds is what I call "critical group". ) and being composed of individuals, who have certain specific characteristics in common, that is, "valence": the maximal number of topics an individual of the species forming this group can still fix his attention to during some reference period; and "channel capacity": the maximal number of transmissions of a message by indi- viduals of this species without provoking some alteration of the content of the message) cannot grow in size without limits.

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