By Dr. Ing Ulrich Hauptmanns, Dr. rer. nat. Wolfgang Werner (auth.)

Encouragement by way of colleagues and a substantial raise within the use of prob­ abilistic analyses because the e-book of the German version in 1987 have influenced this English model. a trifling translation used to be beside the point simply because a couple of very important reviews accomplished lately needed to be incorporated, between them the evaluation of the dangers of 5 nuclear energy crops within the u . s . and the German hazard research, part B. the chance used to be taken to tricky on a few recommendations that have won significance of overdue comparable to twist of fate administration. An replace of overseas defense pursuits was once additionally made; despite the fact that, this may purely be a temporary view of a box subjected to common swap. thank you are a result of Springer-Verlag for the cautious enhancing and creation of the e-book. Kaln, Garching Ulrich Hauptmanns March 1990 Wolfgang Werner Preface to the German variation With the expanding use of advanced applied sciences there's a becoming have to evaluation the linked dangers. The method of probabilistic safeguard and probability research permits predictive valuation of hazards. Nuclear engineering has been within the leading edge of the improvement and alertness of this technique. within the security examine on US strength crops released in 1975 the chance of a complete expertise was once investigated systematically and quantified for the 1st time. in the meantime the equipment have continually been more desirable and utilized to a couple of nuclear energy stations.

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The basic human error probabilities of [42] are multiplied by these factors, which are greater than l. 4. Assessment of the influence of human error on the probability of failure combinations (composed of the failure of technical components and human error) and on the unavailability of the system function (as part of the reliability analysis). Two elements of this method deserve special attention, the task analysis and the decomposition of a complex action into its constituents. The task analysis precedes the quantitative evaluation and implies a systematic identification of the parameters which affect human reliability.

1» are then introduced into this function and thus the failure probability of the system is obtained [12]. With this procedure the failure probability of the system is calculated in two steps as opposed to its direct determination (cf. 3). Amongst others this has the advantage of providing information for the identification of weaknesses of the system. FUrthermore, reliability parameters for different times can be calculated by substituting the corresponding probabilities (variation of tin eq. 1» in the already determined structure function, whereas in direct simulation the calculations have to be repeated.

Analytical methods also serve to determine the minimal cut sets. Minimal Cut Sets A minimal cut set is a combination of components whose simultaneous failure is just sufficient to make the system fail. Mathematically speaking, it represents a necessary and sufficient condition for a system failure. In general, there exist several minimal cut sets for a technical system. Each of them constitutes a possible mode of its failure. The decomposition of a fault tree into its minimal cut sets provides information about the logical structure of the system under consideration.

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